UFC 246: Conor McGregor Odds Vs. Donald Cerrone

Conor McGregor Odds to Pummel Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone

Just a few days remain before the attention of the mixed martial arts world will be firmly fixed on Conor McGregor once again. “The Notorious” one faces Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone on Saturday, January 18 in the main event of UFC 246. OddsUSA is here to give you a breakdown of the marquee bout.

Who is in the Best Fighting Shape for UFC 246… If We Believe All the Talk

In pre-fight interviews, both McGregor and UFC President Dana White discussed the Irishman’s conditioning. McGregor has not only packed on the muscle by having this bout take place at 170 pounds, but he also said Cerrone “‘does not look well’ at 155.” Cerrone later thanked his opponent for that decision at the event press conference on Wednesday.

White told TMZ Sports earlier in the week that a doctor at the UFC Performance Institute believes McGregor to be in the best shape he’s ever been in. Moreover, McGregor’s legal troubles outside the Octagon have been cleared up, with exception to previous sexual assault allegations he’s denied which are still be addressed in court.

McGregor referred to 2020 as “a clean slate,” his camp says he is fully focused and communicating and enjoying his training again. Prior to his last fight against Khabib Nurmagomedov, McGregor revealed he had been drinking during camp. Ahead of the Cerrone fight, McGregor told ESPN he has been alcohol free for around three to four months.

Inside The Numbers: UFC 246 Odds

This may be McGregor’s comeback fight, and he’s the favorite by the way, but by no means is this a “gimme fight.” UFC Stats (previously FightMetric) shows the combatants are pretty even in

almost every category. Most noteworthy, McGregor lands 5.27 significant strikes per minute to Cerrone’s 4.34. McGregor has a massive edge in takedown accuracy (62% to 36%) but both men have said this contest will be a striking affair.

Cerrone is coming off two TKO losses to Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje respectively but Dana White isn’t concerned and neither are we at OddsUSA.

“’Cowboy’ Cerrone has gone on these two-fight skids before and come back,” White said (via MMAJunkie) “‘Cowboy’ Cerrone is almost one of those guys that needs something big to fight for. It’s more than just the money, all the things that go along with it. This is the type of fight that ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone is an absolute spoiler in. This is his deal. These are the type of fights he likes to be in.”

The area of concern with “Cowboy” is that of cumulative damage. He is a bad dude, both he and McGregor are inside the top five of the lightweight rankings, although this fight is at welterweight. Cerrone’s name is all over the UFC record books.

  • Fight of the Night (Six times)

  • Knockout of the Night (Three times)

  • Submission of the Night (Two times)

  • Performance of the Night (Seven times)

  • Most wins in UFC history (23)

  • Most finishes in UFC history (16)

  • Most post-fight bonus awards in UFC history (18)

  • Tied for most bouts in UFC history (33, w/ Jim Miller)

  • Tied for most bouts in a 12-month period in UFC history (6, w/ Sam Alvey)

  • Second most wins in UFC Lightweight history (17)

  • Third most finishes in UFC Lightweight history (10)

  • Most knockdowns in UFC history

Still, this will be Cerrone’s 51st bout. His tires have a lot of miles on them. Cerrone was stopped by Gaethje in the first round his last time out. Seven of his 13 career losses have been finishes, mostly knockouts, while the other six have gone the distance. Even when he wins full-length fights, which he has done nine times, it puts more miles on his body.

The other knock against “Cowboy” is his perceived inability to win “the big one,” that he crumbles when on the doorstep of the next level.

“He’s the two-time belt holding champ, so you can definitely say this is to date the toughest battle I’ve stepped in against,” Cerrone said at Wednesday’s press conference. “I’m stoked man. Everyone always says, “Cowboy,’ can you fight the big fight? Can you ever make it on the big fight?’ Well mother(expletive), here’s the biggest one. Let’s see.”

Who Takes the Win? McGregor Odds vs. Cowboy Cerrone Odds

To answer the above question, it depends on how long you as the bettor think the fight will last. McGregor will be looking for his openings for his famous left hand, but if this fight goes into the fourth of fifth round, what else does he have in the arsenal? That’s been a knock against him in the lead up to this one and “Cowboy” will know it’s coming.

McGregor has one win and all four of his losses are by submission compared to 18 wins by KO/TKO and two decision victories.

We at OddsUSA feel like this one will come down to power and durability. Both men have demonstrated they can take a punch and keep moving but they have never faced each other before. Will Cerrone be surprised by McGregor’s power? Maybe.

However, for us durability means more than just taking damage. Will McGregor be so amped up to return that he has an adrenaline dump? Possibly. Most of his fights have ended in the first or second round. He looked gassed in the second when he lost to Nate Diaz in their first fight and again looked gassed in the third round of their rematch despite later getting the (controversial) decision victory.

He has also been open about being inefficient with his energy. We like McGregor in this one IF he can take control early and get out of the cage within 15 minutes tops, ten preferably. That is unless his conditioning has improved as much as what’s being said.

If this fight sees a third round or beyond, it makes sense to be worried. If you feel like this fight will enter deep water, bet “Cowboy”. UFC 246 goes down Saturday, January 18 from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Prediction: McGregor (-290) by KO/TKO within three rounds

McGregor KO/TKO & Round 1 (+175)

McGregor KO/TKO & Round 2 (+450)

McGregor KO/TKO & Round 3 (+900)