Donald Cerrone vs. Justin Gaethje Odds For September 14

Another Cowboy Highlight? Donald Cerrone vs. Justin Gaethje Odds

It’s a shame the “BMF” belt that welterweights Nate Diaz and Jorge Masvidal have on the line at UFC 244 is going to be a one-off because this weekend’s Cerrone vs. Gaethje main event is a “BMF” contender at lightweight.

Donald Cerrone vs. Justin Gaethje

Cerrone had an impressive run before taking an “L” his last time out and none of Gathje’s UFC bouts have gone the full length. Expect a finish Saturday night.

The experts are picking the young lion in Gathje in this one, but prior to having his eye closed by Tony Ferguson, Cerrone had been setting record after record in the octagon. He is looking to rebound after that fight and father time is not on his side.

However, this is not the first time “Cowboy” and “The Highlight” have scrapped, just the first time publicly. Gaethje revealed he had once been finished by the owner of the BMF ranch in a sparring session.

Cerrone told USA Today’s, “I would have never brought that up on my end, you know?” Cerrone said. “So I don’t know why he did. But training is totally different than fighting, and it must have been a weird, lucky shot. That was so many years and he’s a totally different guy and it’s gonna be the fight everyone thinks it’s going to be.”

Despite being on the rebound, Cerrone is also confident a win means he is still in the 155-pound title picture.

“After I beat Gaethje, there’s nobody else (except Nurmagomedov),” Cerrone said. “That’s it, there is no one in front of me. I do want to fight in December though. I’ll have to take a little 155 break go to 170, we’ll see.”

Donald Cerrone Title Odds? Is That A Real Thing?

But is the title possible? Sure. You never know what can happen in the fight game. The question is this: Is Gaethje too violent for his own good? He is a wrestler but only really uses the style to keep things on the feet meaning this one should be classic “stand and bang.” But is that a good thing?

For the fans, the answer to that question is a resounding yes and Gaethje’s significant strike output is roughly double that of the veteran Cerrone at 8.5 to 4.35 per minute with a 54-46 percent accuracy edge according to UFC Stats.

In giving fans the show they all want to see, Gaethje could get too sloppy. He absorbs 10.23 significant strikes per minute while Cerrone gives up 4.18. Cerrone’s best chance might be in avoiding the traditional KO and working the body, particularly looking for a liver shot to cause a bodily shutdown.

Still, Gaethje is coming off back-to-back first-round wins over James Vick and Edson Barbosa, KOs with a combined time of about four minutes.

This is another tough one to call, another coin flip if you will. But, we feel Cerrone’s love of the fight game and remaining so active (jumping between 155-170) could be his undoing in the form of cumulative damage. Gaethje’s “take several to give one” approach won’t work forever, but he should be able to pile on.

Prediction: Justin Gaethje def. Donald Cerrone by KO/TKO within 3 rounds.

Catch the UFC Vancouver fight card this Saturday, September 14 on ESPN+. The main card starts at 7 p.m. CST.