Freelance: Tips For Successful Live Betting Boxing Wagers
What is Live Betting?
Live betting is the hottest trend in the world of sports gambling at the moment as the figures move as fast as the action, opening at the start of an event as opposed to odds coming in at the start of a given event as opposed to coming in a couple of weeks or days ahead of time. What makes the money move so fast? To give you a clearer picture, OddsShark.com pointed out that, the very wagers themselves depend on the game you are watching and in other sports, the odds adjust in relation to the amount of scoring in a game. In football, there are live wagers such as "Will the current drive lead to a touchdown?" These types of wagers and various prop bets allow for the money to add up at once independently of each other as opposed to parlay betting where if one bet in a series doesn't go your way, you lose the overall wager. So, how might this new way of betting work in boxing and how can you make sure you come out ahead with a full wallet?
Basic and Advanced Strategies
According to OddsShark one trend (basic strategy) is to back a losing heavy favorite. For a myriad of reason maybe one team (in this case a fighter) is ahead, say thanks to a second wind. However, if they do not have the ability to swarm enough or do not possess a knockout shot, that favorite should be able to survive.
“Bettors backing the favorite may have had to lay -300 on the moneyline before the game started, but now you may be able to get that same team at +100 in live betting. Of course this requires you to pay very close attention to the momentum of the game and determine if the team really has a chance to rally.”
Just be warned that in team sports, this comeback can happen and the spread may still not get covered.
Other options include middling or hedging. Hedging is kind of like being a fair-weather fan. Let’s say your original pick was Mayweather as the overall winner in a moneyline bet but McGregor is able to take his best shots and keeps coming. If you then change your wager to McGregor, you’ve hedged your bet.
Hedging might be frowned upon in some circles, but it has been described as not just low-risk but a guaranteed way to ensure you get a profit on a given bet, and that’s
Another avenue to pursue would be middling (see here.)
Breaking Down the Different Main Wager Types
Bet on Rounds (Over/Under)
As with anything else in gambling, how do “in-play/live” betting revolves around how much risk you are willing to take. Using the upcoming Mayweather-McGregor super-fight as an example, there is currently a bet open asking whether on not the fight ends in 60 seconds. This is a bet where the odds should adjust as the clock counts down, but this is a little bit risky because there will be such a limited window for this bet, it either happens or it doesn’t.
Mayweather has the experience edge at 49-0-0. McGregor might be 0-0 in boxing, but his 9-1 in the UFC and 21-3 overall and even in his losses he has never been knocked out. Only one of McGregor’s fights has ended in under a minute and Mayweather has not won a fight by KO/TKO since 2007. McGregor is also bigger than his opponent and has the longer reach. Even at 40 though, Mayweather should be able to eat up a ton of clock with his movement.
Either way, the chances that this fight goes longer than 60 seconds are fairly high (not a smart move) and you want to be smart with your cash. With that in mind, it might be worth betting on the specific round the fight ends, something that will take more time.
There had been a bet out speculating that the contest would end in around nine rounds. The fight is scheduled to be a full-length boxing bout of 12 rounds (36 minutes.)
Many boxers take about four rounds or so to really get going, but UFC main event fights and title fights are just 25 minutes long at the most and in his fights in his second fight with Nate Diaz, McGregor went that distance but looked like he was starting to tire around the third frame.
Meeting somewhere in the middle (Mayweather winning in 5-6 rounds) would probably be a safe bet. In general, fights ending in mere seconds is simply rare.
Boxing also has round groupings when it comes to boxing so if you bet that the fight will end in Rounds 1-3 and it does not, you could possibly win your money back with another grouping, say Rounds 9-12. Even McGregor predicted a fourth round end and no one expects this fight to go the distance, which could lead to some nice profits if it does.
Bet on Multiple Props to Win Big
As mentioned above, one benefit to live betting is having several wagers going at once and some of those require to play out like betting on the amount of punches McGregor may or may not land, a prop bet. “Will McGregor throw a kick?” is another popular prop at the moment as is McGregor throwing in the towel and so on.
Per the UFC-partnered FightMetric, LLC, McGregor has landed 5.82 significant (fight-altering) strikes per minute with an accuracy rate of 47 percent while taking 5.55 and having a defense rate of 57 percent.
Why bet on multiple props during the fight?
It’s a lot easier to bet on something like punch figures, something tied to stats than it would be for some to predict an exact winner and prop bets allow you to bet on specific events happening within a fight but without necessarily getting the outcome right. Being successful on safer bets like a punch count will allow your winnings to build up over time.
Betting on the Knockout
Assuming that your sportsbook has live boxing betting (your overall victory pick is not required to be locked in before the fight,) if you are going to bet on a knockout in the Mayweather-McGregor fight, bet on it happening later than you think. Bet after you’ve had a chance to see McGregor’s chin for a few rounds if possible.
Even though it was a close call, his chin did hold up in that Nate Diaz rematch and former UFC lightweight (155-pound) champion, a noted boxer and former legitimate streetfighter with allegedly around 100 street fights, managed to take him to a second round in a lopsided affair.
Because of that reach he has over Mayweather and Mayweather’s style, when I think of “Money”, I also think of the UFC’s Joanna Jędrzejczyk. The Polish UFC women’s strawweight 115-pounder uses a similar stick and move approach.
It’s been said throughout this post, but smaller (yet precise) strikes like jabs that always seem to find a way to land will accumulate and that’s what it should take with McGregor, an overall effort, thanks to his age and history of hand injuries, KOs may simply not come as easily for Mayweather anymore.
Refer back to hedging for a possible approach to the money line as the fight goes on.
In Conclusion: The Ultimate Goal of Live Betting
With live betting, you might not always be betting on the end of a game or bout, but you are essentially trying to catch lightning in a bottle by guessing as closely as you can to when a momentum shift might occur.
How Will Wagers and Your Betting Stance Change?
In combat sports, it all comes down to the conditioning of your fighter, Mayweather has been known to be more tentative over the years, evading his way to wins and kind of putting opponents in a trance before exploding on them and letting his total striking figures add up.
Like I said before, this fight should be expected to end anywhere from around the 25 to 30-minute mark with McGregor maybe looking questionable around 15 to 20 minutes in. If the contest does not end by then, McGregor still may not win the fight, but expect the odds to at least shift more favorably in his direction.
Essentially the odds (and your stance) may shift based on the answer to the question: “Can McGregor take Mayweather’s punch even once?” It’s an answer the entire combat sports world will know on August 26.
Mayweather (-550) vs. McGregor (+375) takes place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The event will be broadcast live through Showtime Pay-Pay-View and can be purchased for $99.95 to be view in high-definition or for $89.95 in standard definition.
The undercard for this event is unknown as of thing writing (July 11) but it will be announced in the weeks to come.
The first press conference of the fight’s media world tour (Los Angeles) has already taken place as of today but it the tour is set for stops in Toronto tomorrow, New York on Thursday July 13 and a final stop in London on Friday, July 14.