Freelance: Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Conor McGregor: Betting on the Method of Victory
Perhaps even more important than just who will win boxing’s upcoming newest “Fight of the Century” between icon and multiple-weight division world champion and 49-0 Floyd “Money” Mayweather Jr. and 0-0 (21-3 overall in MMA, 9-1 in the UFC) “Notorious” Conor McGregor is exactly how the fight will end and the betting figures attached.
Below are the current Exact Method of Victory odds available from Bovada as of the time of this writing (July 2.)
Floyd Mayweather by Knockout +300/ Conor McGregor Knockout +700
Many fight fans are sharing the sentiment online that this bout may result in the first knockout that Mayweather has had since putting away “Vicious” Victor Ortiz in 2011. This is unlikely given his fighting style, but MMA websites have shared video of both men hitting mitts...McGregor’s hand speed has served him well in MMA but is nowhere near close to that of Mayweather.
Given that Mayweather is also more accustomed to going a full 12-round boxing fight (36 minutes compared to MMA’s longest fights being 5 rounds; 25 minutes in total) he could unleash that ability on the Irishman at pretty much any point that he wishes.
When Mayweather had a celebrity pro wrestling match opposite the WWE’s 7’ 0” “Big Show” (Paul Wight, who has typically weighed between 500 and the high 400-pound range) for Wrestlemania 24 in 2008, it took him seconds to legitimately break Wight’s nose. Wight has said in interviews that he didn’t even notice it was broken at first. That says alot.
However, McGregor has 18 wins by KO/TKO (86 percent overall) and won his UFC featherweight (145-pound) championship by knocking out Jose Aldo, who had been undefeated for ten years, in just 13 seconds—the fastest finish in UFC championship-fight history.
The oddsmakers are clearly giving him far more than a puncher’s chance compared to other outcomes.
Floyd Mayweather by Majority Decision +1600/ Conor McGregor by Majority Decision +3300
Believe it or not, this is won of the results on this list that doesn’t have the highest odds of not happening. Even while Mayweather’s evasive style has bored fans for sometime, they keep buying his pay-per-view events because they are waiting to see who can break his streak.
Essentially, depending on how Mayweather paces himself in the fight the same style discussed above could just as easily lead to a majority (two judges out of three side with the winner) win while still showing that McGregor could hang with him. McGregor’s odds of winning this way are so high because of his aforementioned inexperience.
Floyd Mayweather by Technical Knockout +300/ Conor McGregor by Technical Knockout +1000, Floyd Mayweather by Technical Decision +3300/ Conor McGregor by Technical Decision +5000
Basically, a TKO win would be one of the ways that would prove that McGregor did better than expected but the result was what many expected. A TKO is pretty much the “mercy rule” of boxing.
A stoppage of this kind comes when: a fighter suffers multiple knockdowns (which the boxing tribe feels is likely if McGregor even gets up from one knockdown,) doctor stoppage or injury, corner stoppage/retirement (a fighter’s team admitting that it unsafe for them to continue before needing to call the ringside doctor into the ring for an examination,) or stoppage due to strikes (overwhelming a fighter.)
The odds of a technical decision are so high because, for those that are new to the sport, comes when a headbutt occurs and results in a cut or renders a fighter or both unable to continue in similar fashion to an injury.
The TKO method of victory is for bettors that expect McGregor to be slightly less manhandled (they are out there) than if he were to suffer a traditional knockout, but that he will still need to be saved either due to being overwhelmed or suffering multiple knockdown as mentioned above.
Floyd Mayweather by Unanimous Decision +225/ Conor McGregor by Unanimous Decision +3300
This feels like the most likely outcome (in Mayweather’s favor) because the name of his game is letting the smaller punches add up over the course of the full fight.
McGregor may think that timing beats speed, but it goes back to that hand speed discussed above: while McGregor may find that one right moment to land once, Mayweather will mostly likely be out of the way and having landed multiple strikes (volume striking!)
The native of Crumlin, Dublin also has the reach advantage on his opponent, so he should at least be able to go the distance if the former “Pretty Boy” stays outside of his range.
Floyd Mayweather by Disqualified Opponent +1000/ Conor McGregor Disqualified Opponent +5000
This method of victory is essentially on the list because not only is it a way to win, but because those in the world of boxing and the boxing media are essentially afraid that McGregor would go off and do something crazy (such as a spinning backfist, there is some debate on the legality of that) such as throw a leg kick, which he uses in MMA to set up his strikes.
Although, this has already been discussed and won’t happen because of the amount of money that is on the line. UFC President has already said that their is language against such actions in the contract between the two. A lawsuit would be awaiting “Mystic Mac.”
Floyd Mayweather by Split Decision +2000/ Conor McGregor by Split Decision +2800, and Draw +5000
The odds for this fight ending in any of the ways listed above are so high because this assumes that a complete novice in the single discipline of boxing could take one of the best ever to his absolute limit (despite Mayweather being 40 years of age) and possibly set up a sequel fight. Being blunt, that is not only absurd, but Mayweather has already retired twice.
Although Mayweather will take what he can get (as long as the offer makes sense) the McGregor fight should be should get him to 50-0 but also serve as his single greatest payday as this fight is expected to bring in somewhere around $100 million, allowing him to ride off into the sunset unlike any other fight could.
Prediction: Floyd Mayweather def. Conor McGregor by Unanimous Decision
McGregor not getting finished in his pro debut in a similar, but different, sport with no amateur experience in anyway is really more of a moral victory for him, the UFC, and the world of MMA as a whole than anything else. Then again, he has shocked the world multiple times and been doubted on all of those occasions.