Freelance: UFC Fight Night 111 Odds and Predictions


UFC Fight Night Holm vs. Holm vs. Correia is just days away at the time of this writing (June 12) going down this Saturday, June 17 from Singapore’s Indoor Stadium. Bovada has partial fight card odds for your main and co-main event, so learn a little more about who to consider putting money on this weekend by reading below!

UFC Fight Pass Main Card

Holly Holm vs. Bethe Correia

Oh, how unfortunately far the once mighty Holly “The Preacher’s Daughter Holm has fallen. To go from being the UFC women’s bantamweight (135-pound) champion that made history by finishing “Rowdy” Ronda Rousey and gave her the first defeat of her career to being relegated to the promotion’s main event, but on what is perceived to be its lowest platform.

As has been written about Holm before, the rest of the mixed martial arts world appears to have figured her out, as was the case with Rousey. When this bout has been previously written about, despite going 0-3 as of late, Holm was still Bovada favorite compared to Brazil’s Bethe Correia. This bout shoud largely be a stand-up contest as both women prefer to do so.

Although it has become clear that Holm’s weakness is in the jiu-jitsu department betting on the, “Pitbull” to get a submission victory is like trying to win the lottery—not wise, but there is always the potential for a positive outcome.

Given Holm’s recent skid, the two combatants are nearly exact in terms of records at 10-3 and 10-2-1 respectively.

As has been mentioned before, FightMetric LLC’s numbers show Correia as being the better striker (in spite of Holm’s kickboxing background and the 16 boxing title defense she had across three weight divisions) landing 4.74 Significant Strikes per Minute to Holm’s 3.08 with better accuracy than Holm (46 percent to 34 percent,) she takes more damage by suffering 4.08 Significant Strike Absorbed per Minute while Holm suffered just 2.65 and they are both dead-even in striking defense at 59 percent.

When it comes to the ground game, neither woman is major trouble as they are both average under one takedown per standard 15-minute bout, average 18 percent (Holm) and 25 percent (Correia) in takedown accuracy, both have a submission average of zero, and the only highlight is in their takedown defense (85 percent for Correia and 78 percent for Holm.)

The Odds: The above figures are current as of June 11, but Correia (still Bovada’s underdog at +400 with Holm the -600 favorite.) However, Correia seems to know what to expect.

She originally said of Holm back in late April: “(Boxing) is her main weapon, but it’s mine, too. I always believe in my hands and I’m not afraid to stand against anyone, not even her. I have heavy hands. I have more punching power, I’m strong. If I decide to trade with Holly, it will be a tough fight. But I’m a MMA fighter and I can fight anywhere, too. A striking contest between us will be really interesting. I want to beat Holly Holm because people talk about me defeating a top-five (opponent), and I think this is the moment to show my striking qualities against a top ranked opponent.”

At this point, the main event feels like a bit of a toss-up, but Holm could pick up a win by striking while keeping her opponent add a distance. If Correia forces her way in close, it could be trouble. Otherwise, controlling the shared aspect of the fight should allow Holm to score at will. If she doesn’t get the job done, she will have a 0-4 streak that has gotten other UFC fighters cut.

Prediction: Holly Holm def. Bethe Correia by way of a Unanimous Decision

Andrei Arlovski vs. Marcin Tybura

Despite being a legend of MMA and having the status of being a former UFC heavyweight (265-pound) champion, the other “Pitbull” in Andrei Arlovski is in a similar situation to Holm at 0-4 as well, losing three bouts by TKO along with one defeat by way of rear-naked choke.

The Odds: Compared to the Belarusian, Poland’s Marcin Tybura enter’s his next UFC bout at an impressive 15-2. He is 2-1 in the UFC and is riding a two-win streak (both finishes, he has 13 overall) against an adversary with a weakening chin. Tybura is Bovada’s favorite at -240 against the +190 underdog in Arlovski. The co-headliner should be expected to be another boxing match.

Stats

While Tybura isn’t exactly an outsider, fresh meat in the UFC often goes to fighters that need to rebound. However, Tybura leads Arlovski in almost every way in their FightMetric preview: he land more Significant Strikes per Minute (3.26 to 3.12,) is ahead in Striking Accuracy at 49 percent to 41percent, Arlovski absorbs more attacks per minute at 2.50 strikes to 1.49. Tybura is also has a better defense rate of 68 percent to 59 percent.

Arlovski has the edge almost across the board in grappling, but that part of the fight should only come into play to get things back on the feet.

Prediction: Andrei Arlovski def. Marcin Tybura by way of KO/TKO

Dong Hyun Kim vs. Colby Covington

A win streak will be on the line this Saturday night—either “The Stun Gun’s” (currently three fights, two finishes) or that of “Chaos” (also currently three fights, two finishes.) Kim has the experience edge at 22-3-1 but Covington has a slightly better success rate thanks to his 11-1 overall record.

Covington has also landed 2.51 Significant Strikes Per Minute to 2.19, is slightly more accurate at 51 percent to 49 percent, he gives up fewer strikes (1.43 to 1.79) while they are just shy of even in striking defense. His biggest advantage appears to be in the wrestling as he averages 6.79 takedowns to 3.01 every 15 minutes and is more accurate with those takedowns at 54 percent to 43 percent. Although, Kim’s defense is at 80 percent while Covington has produced a goose egg and both men average less than one submission every 15 minutes (a standard non-title bout.)

Ground ‘n’ pound striking may be the way to go for Covington.

Prediction: Colby Covington def. Dong Hyun Kim by way of a Unanimous Decision

Tarec Saffiedine vs. Rafael dos Anjos

Both of the men in RDA’s debut in the welterweight (170-pound division) need a pick-me-up at this point in time at 2-3 and 3-2 in their last five respective octagon appearances. The Brazilian former lightweight (155-pound) champion is being favored by BloodyElbow.com due to his BJJ skills along with his kickboxing. Maintaining distance and letting the shots at add would serve him well.

Leg kicks will also immobilize him (watch his bout with Rick Story, per BE.) Getting Saffiedine onto the canvas will be the biggest challenge and he is decent with his hands as well. The pressure though will be the biggest factor. If “Sponge” drops this one, he will be 2-4 in the UFC since being a Strikeforce welterweight champion, he’s quite possibly facing being release which could be in his head.

Prediction: Rafael dos Anjos def. Tarec Saffiedine by way of a Unanimous Decision

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Takanori Gomi vs. Jon Tuck

Hopefully, Japan’s “Fireball Kid” will be another fighter who is back on track at the end of this card. However, he is 1-4 in his last 5 bouts with Guam’s Tuck on par with him at 2-3 although Gomi has lost three straight fights (all TKO finishes.) Their FightMetric preview is just shy of an even split so this may just be a case of which man can land first. Tapology.com voters favor Tuck (61 percent overall.) So, apparently so should you!

Although, each was a loss, the three bouts on Tuck’s 2-3 recent record were fights that went the distance.

Prediction: Jon Tuck def. Takanori Gomi by way of a Unanimous Decision

Cyril Asker vs. Walt Harris

Both of these men are heavy hitters with Asker at 8-2 (1-1 in the UFC) and Harris at 9-5 (2-2 in the UFC. Asker now has a 50 percent KO rate with the win happening within the opening five minutes. “The Big Ticket” in Harris is a flawless 100 percent in that area. Asker has never been outside of the first round in the UFC and while that could be viewed as a good thing, both men have cardio that has gone untested and based on the evidence, this countest should even go into Round 3. Eight of Harris’ victories are in Round 1.

Predicition: Walt Harris def. Cyral Asker by way of KO/TKO

Alex Caceres vs. Guam Wang

The pick here seems fairly obvious as “Bruce Leeroy” has dropped five of his last seven UFC bouts (getting finished three times.) Although it’s often hard to guess how a new, hot talent will do at the UFC level, Guan Wang, a replacement is 16-1 with 14 stoppages. He favors striking with 11 KO/TKOs and 12 wins were in the first round.

Prediction: Guam Wang def. Alex Caceres by way of KO/TKO

Justin Scoggins vs. Ulka Sasaki

Japan’s Sasaki has the experience edge (19-4-2, 12 finishes, 10 by submission as he is mostly a submission wrestler) against the 11-3 American in Scoggins (7 finishes.) Both are 2-3 in their last five bouts. With Scoggins also being a wrestler, his opponent is mostly expecting to throw leather, a growing trend from Asian fighters.

Sasaki recently told Sportskeeda.com, “I think to win in the UFC, you have to have a high level of striking skills. I mean, look at Korean Zombie or Doo Ho Choi, or the other Asian fighters who’ve had success in the UFC. They all had very solid striking games, so that’s why even I’m emphasising on striking in this fight camp…I’m emphasising more on my striking game because I want to become a champion. So, this is a long-term plan; even after the fight against Justin, I’m going to emphasise on improving my striking game.”

While improving is always a good thing, what this actually shows is that his striking is still developing as it is a lesser area of his game, so Scoggins should be able to handle him. The big concern with “Tank” as of late has been making weight.

Prediction: Justin Scoggins def. Ulka Sasaki by way of a Unanimous Decision

Li Jingliang vs. Frank Camacho

In the case of Guam’s Camacho, coming into the UFC as a late-notice replacement due to injury should be an advantage for him if he can handle the classic “UFC gitters.” He is 20-4 compared to the 12-4 UFC veteran he will debut against and favors BJJ. After failing to get on the 16th season of The Ultimate Fighter, Camacho went 5-1 with all of those wins being stoppages.

Jingliang is 3-2 in his last five and is on a 2-0 streak with all of those victories being by KO. Camacho has 15 under his belt with 12 coming in the first round alone. That should say enough.

Prediction: Frank Camacho def. Li Jingliang by way of KO/TKO

Kwan Ho Kwak vs. Russell Doane

Doane is 1-4 in his last five with his only win coming by way of a decision and a split decision at that. He recently suffered back-to-back submission defeats. He also has suffered a longer layoff of 248 days to Kwak’s. Kwak has just one appearance in the octagon, which he lost unanimously. The American has 11 finishes (5 submissions) and is a wrestler while also of Kwak’s wins are because of his hands.

If Doane can control where the fight takes place, he should pick up his first “W” in quite some time. If not, he might be another to get released