Freelance: UFC 212 Odds— Final Fight Card Preview and Predictions
The MMA world is now just days out from yet another UFC pay-per-view card, UFC 212. Bovada has updated the odds for the event to show lines spanning the full 12-fight card. Will Vitor “The Phenom” Belfort go into retirement with one last victory after 20 years of competing? Will Claudia Gadelha get another shot at 115-pound gold? Will Jose Aldo hold onto his belt? Check out the full breakdown below!
Main Card (Pay-Per-View)
(C) Jose Aldo vs. (IC) Max Holloway
The main event of the night feels like a passing of the torch. Aldo’s 13-second loss to the “Notorious” Conor McGregor may not be troubling him anymore, but what does he have left to prove? He went unbeaten for around a decade and has earned his right to be called a legend. It’s been said before that it feels like the elder Brazilian has one foot out the proverbial door after opening his own burger restaurant in his native country.
The Odds: Fight-wise, as long as some casual fans have at least seen some of the UFC featherweight champion’s body of work, the fight is easily predictable: Aldo should volume strike when in close and also try to keep the interim featherweight champion in Holloway at a distance, chopping at him like a California redwood tree, wearing him down. It’s because of this tendency that he is the -150 favorite against the +120 underdog Hawaiian. See the full FightMetric statistical preview here.
However, if Holloway uses speed to dictate the pace and Aldo is put down again, he could just as easily retire. The interim champion is accustomed to being doubted as he recently told the United Kingdom’s Daily Star:
“I’ve been the underdog my whole life but that’s about to chance because actions speak louder than words - and I’ve been doing a lot of actions…Being the underdog was just me wanting to work at everything. I wanted to work my a** off. My papa instilled that in me from a young age...It is confidence not cockiness. If you don’t have the confidence in what you are doing you are going to be just average.”
Prediction: Jose Aldo def. Max Holloway via Unanimous Decision
Claudia Gadelha vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Both of these ladies are near-perfect with their only defeats coming at the hands of UFC strawweight (115-pound) queen Jędrzejczyk. Neither are big ground-game fighters despite the fact that Gadelha hails from the land of BJJ which then originally spawned MMA. This fight is really just a waiting game to see which woman will get out-boxed. A coach for Kowalkiewicz did predict a submission win for her though.
However, she only has two by sub over the entirety of her career. She does lead Gadelha in Significant Strikes Landed per Minute (4.56 to 3.59) but is less accurate at 35 percent to 42 percent and absorbs more strikes per minute (4.93 to Gadelha’s 3.94.)
The Odds: Bovada has remained the exact same when it comes to this bout with Gadelha as the -285 favorite against the +225 underdog in her Polish opponent.
Vitor Belfort vs. Nate Marquardt
Marquardt hasn’t done great inside of the octagon as he has just three victories as a part of the UFC over nine total fights since being brought in from the now-defunct Strikeforce promotion. Although, it feels like the retiring Belfort has already mentally checked out. He said after his last fight (a loss):
“It's time to end this chapter as a professional fighter. My body is not the same anymore for training. It’s too much pain. I did more than 14 surgeries. I left everything in the Octagon. I’m sad because I didn’t give the win to my fellow Brazilians, but it happens.”
The Odds: Taking a look at the American’s few UFC wins, when he does win, it comes by way of a finish and Belfort’s body is starting to fail him. Belfort is the favorite in his home country at -130 but Marquardt isn’t an underdog as Bovada has him at even at the time of this writing (May 29.)
Updated Predicition: Nate Marquardt def. Vitor Belfort via KO/TKO
Paulo Borrachinha vs. Oluwale Bamgbose
Bambgbose is yet another name on this card that is trying not to get cut after going 1-2 as a part of the globe’s top combat promotion (6-2 overall.) Meanwhile, his dance partner is just on his way up the rankings at 1-0 in the UFC but 9-0 overall in the sport with eight finishes all by way of trading leather. Various outlets have reported that Bamgbose has what appears to be an entry-level four-fight deal and things don’t look good for the man.
The Odds: Borrachinha is the obvious favorite at -280 while “The Holy War Angel” sits at +220.
Prediction: Paulo Borrachinha def. Oluwale Bamgbose via KO/TKO
Erick Silva vs. Yancy Medeiros
As previously reported, this fight’s result will most likely depend on who can control where the fight goes: either standing or turning into a jiu-jitsu match. If it ends up on the canvas, it goes to Silva (12 sub wins, 63 percent.) Standing up, the fight should go to the other Hawaiian on this card and Max Holloway’s teammate in Medeiros (six KO/TKOS, 46 percent.) Neither has looked spectacular though as they are both fresh off L’s with Silva 3-2 as of late.
The Odds: This looks to be a real toss-up with Silva at -120 but Medeiros is not too far behind him at -110.
Prediction: Yancy Medeiros def. Erick Silva via of KO/TKO
Early Prelims (Fox Sports 1)
Marlon Moraes vs. Raphael Assuncao
Moraes is actually one of the bigger names on this card despite fighting on the FS1 portion thanks to his prior reign as the bantamweight (135-pound champion) for the third-tier World Series of Fighting promotion. Although, by fighting in what has openly been called “the C-league” that means that the former titleholder has faced lesser fighters than in the UFC (despite their huge roster having some lesser fighters as well.)
The Odds: Moraes is currently the favorite at -225 to +175 Assuncao.
Assuncao is not one of those men. Sure, he’s always only been on the verge of a UFC title shot, falling just short when it counted, but he fell short against the likes of former UFC bantamweight champion TJ Dillashaw (who is very close to a title fight once again.) Add to this the fact that Assuncao has won eight of his last nine fights (although mostly by scores) while the WSOF king has won three straight but two based on eye and leg injuries (both ruled TKOs) and it just seems like a matter of probability.
Prediction: Raphael Assunção def. Marlon Moraes via Unanimous Decision
Antonio Carlos Junior vs. Eric Spicely
There very well could be minimal stand-up action in this fight. Spicely, a vet of The Ultimate Fighter 23, has six tap-outs to his credit that make up 60 percent of his overall victories while Carlos Junior is 7-2, 1 No Contest overall with a handful of subs as well.
The Odds: Carlos Junior has the nod of Bovada’s oddsmakers at -225 against the +175 Spicely.
It’s possible that the two men might decide to stay away from the grappling side of things as they are both well-versed in that area, but fighters tend to fall back on their base style, so look for someone to try and get ahold of a limb!
Prediction: Eric Spicely def. Antônio Carlos Júnior via Unanimous Decision
Matthew Lopez vs. Johnny Eduardo
This is another tough call as Lopez hasn’t looked great in the UFC (1-1) but has been a champion for developmental organization while Eduardo had been shelved for around two years. However, they both match up well on the ground. Eduardo has 21 finishes (13 subs) and Lopez has four subs on his 9-1 overall record.
The Odds: Lopez is -200 with Eduardo at +160.
Prediction: Johnny Eduardo def. Matthew Lopez via Submission.
Iuri Alcantara vs. Brian Kelleher
16-7 Brian Kelleher will face no easy test in his first UFC bout. He is riding a 6-0 run that includes winning and defending the bantamweight title for Ring of Combat. His first opponent in Alcântara has an overall 34-7, 1 NC record (27 finishes) and is 7-3 in his last ten bouts dating back to four years ago.
The Odds: The Brazilian is the favorite at -260 with the fresh meat at +200.
Both men fought back in March and both won by submission. Of his losses though, Alcântara has only been stopped on two occasions and they both have proven to be fight stoppers. However, Kelleher has tapped four times and subs make up 41 percent of his challenger’s wins.
Iuri Alcântara def. Brian Kelleher via Submission.
Early Prelims (UFC Fight Pass)
Viviane Pereira vs. Jamie Moyle
Pereira is even in both finish victories and those that come from points (12-0 overall) while Moyle is 4-1 overall with all of her bouts being full-length, proving that while she is tough, she takes longer to execute her plan of attack.
The Odds: Pereira is better across the board, so don’t let her split decision win at UFC 206 fool you. It was just the second split of her young career while she has otherwise ended bouts or won unanimously, in similar fashion to Moyle in that respect. Breaking down her six finishes, she has four of them through striking, so she will likely want the fight to stay on the feet with Moyle close to heading back to the all-female Invicta FC, widely considered a developmental organization. Pereira leads at -125 with Moyle at -105.
Prediction: Viviane Pereira def. Jamie Moyle via KO/TKO
Luan Chagas vs. Jim Wallhead
As has been said before about this contest, this is a fight that is less about who wins and more so the fact that whoever does win will get to keep their job with the UFC. England’s Wallhead is more experienced at 29-10 overall but is 0-1 in the promotion with his last fight being his UFC debut.
The Odds: The 14-2-1 Chagas (0-1-1 in the UFC) has yet to go the distance in his triumphant efforts but Wallhead has proven his durability with 21 total finishes but eight decision wins as well. However, Chagas has youth (and most likely speed) at 23 compared to his 37-year-old dance partner. He is the -225 favorite with Wallhead at +175. Chagas has that edge but they are fairly even in grappling success. However, his opponent has not lost by submission since 2006 after going pro in 2005, so they may cancel each other out on the canvas.
Luan Chagas def. Jim Wallhead by Unanimous Decision
Deiveson Alcantra Figueiredo vs. Marco Beltran
Marco “Psycho” Beltran is the UFC veteran in this case at 3-1 in the promotion (8-4 overall) but is fresh off of a loss to former bantamweight (135-pound) title challenger Joe Soto at UFC Fight Night 98 last November and is now moving up to featherweight (145 pounds.) The heel hook submission loss ended a three-fight winning streak while Alcantra comes into his UFC promotional debut at 11-0 overall with 10 finishes.
The Odds: The true test for Alcantra is in debuting for the UFC period as he has yet to be truly tested outside of the Brazilian fight scene. Still, while Beltran is a finisher (2 KO/TKOs and 4 subs) the third cousin of UFC veteran Iuri (who is also on the card as evident above) is a more well-rounded threat everywhere with an even split of five KO/TKOs and five subs against his one win based on scorecards, which was over three years ago.
Also, before Beltran’s three victories prior to the Soto loss (the last of which was a rear-naked choke victory against Reginaldo Vieira,) he dropped three straight (all defeats by finishes) and had not won by a finish himself since May 12, 2012. Because of these factors he is the underdog at +140 against the -170 Alcantra. Alcantra said to USA Today’s MMAJunkie.com that he specifically is working on a strategy to smother Beltran.
Prediction: Deiveson Alcantra Figueiredo def. Marco Beltran via Submission